“ Ukraine has to build the reputation of the country as a reliable place to do business. ”
Igor Mazepa, Concorde Capital CEO, makes forecast for Ukraine’s GDP in 2020
There is no essential difference in Ukrainian economic growth projections of 3% or 3.7% for 2020 – says Igor Mazepa. Ultimately, the economy will continue to recover at a moderate pace after the collapse of 2014-2015. And this pace isn’t differing significantly from the last three years. The economic breakthrough that was promised by the new government, if it ever happens, certainly won’t occur next year - says Igor Mazepa.
A GDP forecast is supposed to demonstrate convincingly what factors will drive accelerated economic growth. In the Ukrainian economy, acceleration can occur primarily owing to significant strengthening of investment inflows. This inflow can’t be created with domestic resources, which is why it’s necessary to strengthen foreign direct investment - says Igor Mazepa. That is possible only in a situation of an obvious improvement of the investment climate in the country.
The legal and regulatory initiatives so far don’t offer a basis for believing that the environment in the country will improve in the nearest future to the extent that the advantages of investing in Ukraine in particular become obvious - says Igor Mazepa.
It’s possible that for some investors, select changes will be enough to make a decision. But select changes won’t be able to ensure an inflow of investment projects. Strengthening economic growth to the targeted 5-7% per year should involve an avalanche of investment projects considering it’s impossible to ensure such expansion with the base of existing production assets - states Igor Mazepa.
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