Uncertain prospects for Ukraine to get further IMF assistance according to Concorde Capital's Igor Mazepa

Igor Mazepa, CEO and Founder of Concorde Capital investment company, states that Ukraine is unlikely to receive new tranches from the International Monetary Fund in 2022.

The IMF has allocated financing to Ukraine now, because there would be only two options to choose from in December. It would be necessary either to admit that the cooperation programme between Ukraine and the IMF was unsuccessful — with both Ukraine and IMF at fault, but everyone still wants New Year bonuses — or to pretend that everything is fine, at least in the headlines, and continue the programme and financing. If we have a closer look at the text of the Staff Report, each paragraph tells us about risks and inefficiency. Ukraine can receive the balances under the IMF programme, about $700m on 4 March 2022 and about $1.5bn on

3 June 2022, following IMF missions that would monitor the implementation of the programme and the situation in the economy, national budget, and banking system.

What are Ukraine's chances of getting subsequent IMF tranches?

To receive the next tranche, Ukraine must, by the next review of the programme, implement six structural beacons and do not screw thing up, which means Ukraine should not roll back on the things that have long been agreed and implemented. If we look at the situation that has been unfolding over the last year and a half, the main issue for Ukraine is not the failure to meet programme requirements. The point is that Ukraine has been meeting them for the sake of appearance, without proper respect and with a sour face.

The likelihood is extremely low that Ukraine will receive the next tranche from the IMF, because the combination of these two factors, the implementation of new requirements of the programme and no rollback on all other reforms, is difficult to achieve. Even one tranche will be a monumental challenge.